How the local election actually works
Next Thursday, 7 May, registered voters will be able to visit their local polling station and vote for three candidates. You must be registered to vote and the deadline to arrange this has already passed.
Because the entire local council is up for election (22 wards with three councillors each) you can vote for three candidates. The candidates you choose do not have to be from the same party.
Votes will be counted the following day, Friday 8 May at Aintree Race Course. OTS News will be present at the count to bring you all the results as soon as they’re announced.
The Council today
As of today, Sefton Council’s composition looks like this:
Labour – 51 seats
Liberal Democrats – 9 seats
Conservative – 3 seats
Independents – 1 seat
Green Party – 1 seat
Reform UK – 1 seat
Total – 66 seats
The Pollcheck predictions
Unlike general elections where polling data is in constant supply, granular predictions for local elections are somewhat harder to come by. Ahead of publication OTS News was primarily led by pollcheck.co.uk, which provided a single source of polling data.
Additionally, the change of boundaries makes predicting local electoral outcomes harder. Following a review by the Local Government Boundary Commission, the boundaries of most Sefton wards were changed. This means that for the first time in 22 years, every Sefton Council seat will be contested at a local election.
National media outlets are rushing to tell their readers that Reform are set for a very positive set of election results, and that voters are ready to punish Labour for their record in office. Pollcheck appears to support that assessment on a local level within Sefton.
Pollcheck has Reform winning 15 of the 66 available seats, and while that might be seen as a positive result, it would fall some way short of their hope to take full control of the council, as documented in a number of pieces of their election literature.
Labour is still projected, again by Pollcheck, to retain control of Sefton Council with 34 seats. If this exact result came to pass, Labour would hold a majority of 2.
The Liberal Democrats will gain three extra seats, according to Pollcheck, and the Green Party will quadruple their number of seats to four in thanks to a significant effort in Waterloo, where the Greens might take all three seats.
While it may be a difficult election for the Sefton Labour Group, Pollcheck has the Conservatives winning just a single seat in the whole of Sefton. That would be in Duke’s and would presumably be secured by current Conservative leader Mike Prendergast. A reminder that as recently as 2021, Conservatives were still gaining seats in Southport and had 8 representatives on the Council.
The caveat is that while polls are very good at providing the general narrative, they are much less successful at exact predictions. All of the parties may perform better or worse than this single poll predicts. In writing election previews, OTS News would generally hope to review a range of local polling data, which we have not been able to do.
Reform on the rise – but toppling Labour seems unlikely
Despite having never won a seat in Sefton (Reform’s single current sitting councillor Mike Morris defected from the Conservatives), Reform are set to pick up a respectable number of seats on Sefton Council. Propelled by national popularity and helped by a brief visit to the town from Nigel Farage, Pollcheck has Reform taking 15 seats, including taking the majority of seats in Duke’s and potentially even Norwood, both of which would be considerable victories over the Conservatives and Labour respectively.
Confusion, however, remains over the position of Meols candidate Larry Sweeney, who until 25 April was named as the local Reform Chair, before his name was unceremoniously removed from the Southport Reform Website. Mr Sweeney remains a named candidate but refused to confirm the status of his Chairmanship to the Liverpool Echo in a piece published yesterday (30 April).
Two of those standing have also been publicised in the now-traditional review of Reform candidates social media accounts. Jay Leslie Cooper, standing in Bootle West branded the Holocaust ‘a hoax’ on his Facebook account, and an X account in the name of Birkdale candidate Mark Ormsby remains online, filled with a range of offensive posts.
As recently as 10 April, Southport Reform’s Facebook page had suggested it was working “in preparation for taking control of Sefton”. Whether Reform can successfully engage South Sefton in the numbers required remains unclear. Even with the collapse of the ‘Red Wall’, South Sefton’s Labour seats remain some of the safest in the country.
Norwood – too close to call
Three Labour councillors currently sit in Norwood. Councillors Greg Myers and Dave Neary will not contest their seats while Cllr Mhairi Doyle will stand for a different, arguably safer seat in the newly-created ward of Bootle West.
Pollcheck currently predicts two Labour councillors in Norwood, while also branding the seat too close to call. Notably these are the only two Labour victories predicted by Pollcheck north of the Formby Bypass.
If polling proves correct, Labour will lose the historic gains it has made in the town since 2020. Patrick Hurley MP will surely be keeping a very close eye on results in preparation for retaining his seat at the next election.
Opposition parties do appear, however, to have a real chance of robbing Labour of their majority in the Sefton Council chamber. Council meetings are dominated by Sefton Labour, and opposition motions or amendments are shot down with ease. That might not be so simple if Labour do not control the chamber and might be the most realistic chance opposition parties have for a genuine change in the direction of Sefton Council.
Quiet gains for the Lib Dems. Eyes on the Conservatives
Lib Dems look set to make small gains on Thursday, possibly helped by those dissatisfied with Labour and the Conservatives, who don’t see Reform as a viable option. The Conservative presence within the Council looks fragile, with polling predicting just a single seat.
While Southport’s Conservatives have a strong slate of candidates, polling suggests the forthcoming local election will be difficult, with the party nationally losing significant vote share to Reform. Pollcheck has just one candidate winning in Duke’s, which would be a historically significant result and leave the party with a significant rebuilding job to do in the town.
Greens and independents
The Green Party, emerging as a alternative to discontented Labour supporters, could be set to quadruple their presence on Sefton from 1 seat to 4. Significant efforts have been made in Waterloo ward, and taking all three seats there remains a real possibility.
Southport also has a number of ‘Your Party’-approved independents standing on Thursday, and admittedly independent candidates are often under-represented in polling data, which this piece is based on. The group has formed a significant alliance with Jeremy Corbyn, who will visit Southport on Saturday, but it remains to be seen if they can gain a foothold in the town, in the hope of eventually electing an independent or Your Party MP.