Veteran Southport journalist Martin Hovden writes: Conservative parliamentary candidate Damien Moore is on course to win Southport in next month’s general election, it was revealed today.
Polling expert Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus predicts Mr Moore will beat Liberal Democrat Sue McGuire by more than 3,000 votes on June 8 – which represents a 6.5% majority. Lib Dem John Pugh’s majority in the 2015 election was just over 1,000 votes (3%).
The UKIP vote compared to the 2015 result is predicted to dramatically fall from 7,000 to 3,000, with most UKIP voters expected to switch to the Conservatives. Support for Labour and The Green Party is also expected to drop.
The polling company (quoted in today’s Guardian – hardly a Conservative-supporting newspaper) has even predicted how each of our town’s seven wards (suburbs) will vote, with Ainsdale, Cambridge, Dukes and Meols going to the Tories and the Lib Dems winning Birkdale, Kew (by just five votes) and Norwood.
Electoral Calculus says Damien Moore (pictured with Prime Minister Theresa May) has a 56% chance of winning, with Sue McGuire on 24%, Labour’s Liz Savage on 18% and UKIP’s Terry Durrance on 2%.
However, polls have proved to be wrong in the past and there are still more than three weeks of the campaign to go.
And never underestimate the power of the Lib Dems in Southport. Expect a very intense campaign in the town from all sides, but especially the Tories and Lib Dems.
To show how close it is, bookmakers Paddy Power are now offering odds of 1/2 for the Tories to win in Southport, with the Lib Dems on 11/8.