A government adviser says the epidemic is expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days – but people’s behaviour is critical.
Social distancing measures in the UK could be relaxed within weeks if there are signs the coronavirus epidemic is slowing, a leading scientist and government adviser has said.
Professor Neil Ferguson – of Imperial College London, which is advising the government on its coronavirus response – said the UK’s epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but said people’s behaviour was critical to determining what happens next.
He told BBC Radio 4: “The critical thing first is to get case numbers down, and then I’m hopeful… in a few weeks’ time we will be able to move to a regime which will not be normal life, let me emphasise that, but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social distancing and the economy, but relying more on testing.”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock have urged people to “stick with the guidance” to stay at home and resist the temptation to break the COVID-19 outbreak social distancing rules this sunny weekend.
Asked what would happen if people flouted the lockdown rules, Prof Ferguson replied: “That moves us to a slightly more pessimistic scenario.
“We still think things will plateau but we’ll be at quite high levels of infection for weeks and weeks rather than seeing quite a rapid decline as the type seen in China.”
The government ramped up measures against the coronavirus epidemic last month after a report by Prof Ferguson’s team predicted the UK could otherwise have seen 250,000 deaths.
Testing is seen as vital in tracking the virus and giving the UK hope of ending the current lockdown.
Currently, around 10,000 tests are being carried out each day.
The health secretary has committed to carrying out 100,000 COVID-19 tests per day in England by the end of April.
Health specialists have said they are currently “testing to the limit of our materials”, adding that they are ready to increase capacity, but only if given a “reliable supply” of equipment to do so.
The Institute of Biomedical Science (IBMS) warned there is a “very real risk” that hospitals may run out of reagents, leaving patients unable to be tested.
A reagent is a chemical needed to determine if a coronavirus test is positive or negative.
“The UK has numerous high-quality accredited laboratories with suitable equipment, with the capability to process over 100,000 tests per day, set up and ready to meet testing targets,” a spokesman for the IBMS said.
“Currently, England could process up to 25,000 a day, which by May could rise to 100,000, meeting the ambitious target set down by Matt Hancock, all within the NHS. However, there is a material supply issue with a worldwide shortage in reagent kits.
“The supply of precision plastics that are used with the reagents are not due to be ready until mid-May.”
Report courtesy of Sky News
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