Now that the holiday season is over, there’s yet another large event still at the forefront of everyone’s minds, Brexit. Britain is slated to leave the European Union in less than three months, but the terms of the divorce are still yet to be settled. Prime Minister Theresa May has been incredibly busy over recent months as the PM tries to find a solution that will work for both the EU and everyone back home.
However, even with May’s continued efforts to bring all parties to an agreement, both the UK and EU are left wondering what the nature of Brexit is going to actually look like come March 29th. Following a tumultuous time in the House of Commons over the past two months, lawmakers and Brits alike still don’t know what to expect, even as the Brexit date continues to rapidly approach.
In the current situation, there are a variety of scenarios that could still play out, but with limited time, the chances of an orderly Brexit look bleak as UK business owners start to prepare for the possibility of a “hard” Brexit. Outside of the UK, many other business owners and experts are anticipating the very real likelihood of a so-called “hard” Brexit with no agreement by the March deadline as well. Of the many concerns for such a departure from the EU, businesses need to account for the very real effect a no-deal Brexit will have on the value of the pound along with many other economic factors.
Economists and business leaders anticipate a drop in value against foreign currencies at the onset as the financial markets deal with the uncertainty to come, a reality that’s looking more likely by the day. Alon Rajic, managing director at moneytransfercomparison.com, a comparison company that reviews different financial products with a focus on international money transfers, sees the most likely scenario looking forward as a no-deal situation (i.e. a “hard” Brexit), stating that:
“The Brexit discussion is brimming with revolutionary ideas focusing around three points — reversing Brexit altogether without a new referendum, reversing Brexit as a result of a new referendum, the parliament approving the existing agreement made by PM May and that the UK will negotiate an extension to the due date of March 29 allowing it to prepare accordingly or renegotiate the agreement altogether. While all could in fact take place, none of them has been supported by the British Prime Minister or the EU officials. Hence, the most realistic scenario for the time being is a no-deal Brexit that will leave the UK in disarray.”
And Rajic isn’t alone in that assessment either as governments prepare for the potential fallout from a no-deal departure from the EU, it’s looking like the most likely scenario. However, not everyone thinks a “hard” Brexit will be the worst option compared to the other choices.
Recent survey results show that most members of the Conservative Party still prefer the channel of leaving the EU with no deal at all than with the plan negotiated by PM May. Contrary to popular opinion held by UK citizens, the Conservative Party overwhelmingly sided with a “hard” Brexit over the choice to leave with May’s deal or remain in the EU altogether. Of the 1,215 Tory Party members surveyed, 57 percent responded that they’d prefer no agreement, while 23 percent sided with May’s compromise, and only 15 percent opting to remain in the EU. That’s compared to public opinion as a whole where 42 percent of respondents said they’d prefer to remain in the EU, 25 percent preferred a no-deal exit, and 13 percent agreed with May’s agreement (with the remaining saying they would not vote).
With the March deadline on the horizon, the amount of time remaining is shrinking everyday. For businesses, that means it’s time to start seriously considering the effects of a “hard” Brexit and be prepared for what is looking like the most likely outcome come departure time.
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