THE Ashes is under way and the usual build-up involving a noisy slanging match between the two teams has been notable by its absence.
The bowlers are normally very keen to question the techniques of the opposing team’s batters, while Aussie legend Glenn McGrath’s 5-0 scoreline prediction for his team is as guaranteed as Christmas Day falling on December 25 every year.
For those worried about McGrath, he has spoken and he has predicted a 5-0 scoreline in favor of Australia.
But the cloud of Covid 19 is hanging over the tour with the Perth Test cancelled, and a new venue still being scouted for a game that begins on January 14.
It may be second on the list of cricketing rivalries but the current clash between Australia and England has been very low key, with the main talking point ahead of the series beginning the decision by the Australia skipper to step down just a couple of weeks before the first Test.
Tim Paine then decided to take a break from the sport so Australia lost their first-choice wicketkeeper as well as their skipper: Alex Carey coming in to take the gloves and Pat Cummins taking over the captaincy. Despite the upheaval, the odds on the home side have remained fairly static, more to do with the tourists struggles since 2010 to win a Test in Australia, let alone a series.
England have managed just one draw in the ten Tests they have played Down Under since 2011 and, according to the bookies, they are unlikely to be celebrating their first series win in ten years come January.
The bookies have the hosts at 1/3 (-300) to win the series, with England 9/2 (+450) to pull off an upset. Drilling down into the betting offers with bet365 a little more interest: you can get 6/4 (+150) on England to win one game and 2/1 (+200) for the tourists to win two – and with the possibility of two day/night matches that may be worth looking into more closely.
Adelaide is hosting a day/night game with the rescheduled fifth Test also likely to be a day/night affair, and Aussie great Mitchell Johnson, a bowler who has terrorised England batters on numerous occasions, fears it gives Joe Root’s side a distinct advantage.
Johnson too 37 wickets in the 2013/14 series – the Aussies won 5-0 – with a short-pitched attack that the England batters couldn’t cope with; England’s bowlers rely more on movement in the air and off the pitch rather than pace and bounce.
The likes of Stuart Broad and Jimmy Anderson – England’s greatest wicket-taker is expected to be back for the second Test – have found the red Australian Kookaburra ball not to their liking in recent series, their preference being the Dukes ball used in England which traditionally offers more movement.
“I worry about the pink-ball Test,” said Johnson. “It could be a very different series.
“The red Kookaburra doesn’t tend to swing here, the pink ones do. The pink-ball Tests favor England with their bowling attack. They know how to use the swinging ball. Their batsmen play the moving ball better than the Australians.”
The Aussies’ troubles with the moving ball were clear during their tour of England in 2019, their 2-2 draw as much to do with the heroics of Steve Smith whose scoring sequence was up with the best in Test history. Smith weighed in with 774 runs in seven innings at an average of 110: one double hundred, two 100s and three 50s. He could have had more but he missed a game after getting struck on the head by Jofra Archer.
The absence of Archer, a bowler whose raw pace would be most suited to the bouncy Aussie surfaces, makes the chances of England winning the day games at Melbourne and Sydney an outside bet, but it might be worth avoiding Glenn McGrath’s prediction. For the record, Australia are 9/1 (+900) to win the series 5-0.
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